Early population projections described future changes in total population and could foresee unsustainable population growth. Age-specific population projections could identify trends in population ageing and demographic dividends, and they have been widely used in recent decades owing to the efforts of collecting and estimating demographic data by age. In recent years, data are becoming available to allow for population projections by age and birth parity, which could help understanding future changes in family structures. To take advantage of the opportunity created by these increasingly accessible data, this paper extends the cohort component method to project populations by age and birth parity and provides an application for Canada.

中文翻译：

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按年龄和生育率预测人口变化：第三代人口预测

早期的人口预测描述了未来总人口的变化，并可能预见到不可持续的人口增长。特定年龄人口预测可以确定人口老龄化和人口红利的趋势，由于按年龄收集和估计人口数据的努力，它们在近几十年来得到了广泛应用。近年来，越来越多的数据可用于按年龄和生育率进行人口预测，这有助于了解家庭结构的未来变化。为了利用这些越来越容易获得的数据创造的机会，本文将队列成分方法扩展到按年龄和出生胎次预测人口，并为加拿大提供了一个应用程序。