ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to quantify the impact of economic uncertainty shocks in Spain by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach with data from the first quarter of 2001 until the first quarter of 2018. Specifically, we analyze temporary and persistent economic and policy uncertainty shocks. Our results suggest that positive economic and political uncertainty shocks lead to an increase in unemployment and declines in consumption, investment, IBEX 35 index, and GDP. Based on our results, we can conclude that economic and policy uncertainty shocks have a significant negative impact on the Spanish economy.

中文翻译：

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西班牙经济和政策不确定性冲击的影响

摘要

本研究的目的是通过使用结构向量自回归 (SVAR) 方法和 2001 年第一季度至 2018 年第一季度的数据来量化西班牙经济不确定性冲击的影响。政策不确定性冲击。我们的结果表明，积极的经济和政治不确定性冲击会导致失业率上升，消费、投资、IBEX 35 指数和 GDP 下降。根据我们的结果，我们可以得出结论，经济和政策不确定性冲击对西班牙经济有重大负面影响。