ABSTRACT

We live in a changing world that can create uncertainty about who we are, and make extremist groups, identities and ideologies attractive to us. This article invokes uncertainty-identity theory to explore the role played by context-induced self-uncertainty in radicalization, violent extremism, and support for populist ideologies and autocratic leadership. Uncertainty-identity theory argues that people are motivated to reduce self and identity uncertainty, and that group identification satisfies this motivation. However, some groups and identities are more effective than others. Specifically, highly entitative groups with clearly defined prescriptive identities that are unambiguous and consensual – identities that echo populist ideology, conspiracy theories and victimhood narratives. Self-uncertainty creates a need for leadership, in particular leaders who are populist, autocratic and toxic. I introduce uncertainty-identity theory to focus on its account of “extremism” – overviewing empirical support, and closing with discussion of warning signs of radicalization and speculations about preventative strategies.

摘要

我们生活在一个不断变化的世界中，这会给我们带来不确定性，并使极端主义团体、身份和意识形态对我们具有吸引力。本文援引不确定性-同一性理论来探讨情境引起的自我不确定性在激进化、暴力极端主义以及对民粹主义意识形态和专制领导的支持中所起的作用。不确定性身份理论认为人们有减少自我和身份不确定性的动机，而群体认同满足了这种动机。但是，某些群体和身份比其他群体和身份更有效。具体而言，高度实体化的群体具有明确定义的规定性身份，这些身份是明确且一致的——这些身份与民粹主义意识形态、阴谋论和受害者叙述相呼应。自我不确定性产生了对领导力的需求，尤其是民粹主义、专制和有毒的领导人。我介绍了不确定性同一性理论，以关注其对“极端主义”的解释——概述实证支持，最后讨论激进化的警告信号和对预防策略的猜测。