This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对西非农业的潜在影响：一种生物经济模拟方法

本文调查了西非国家经济共同体（ECOWAS）中气候变化对农业的影响。为此，在2004年基准年数据集上建立并校准了一种生物经济模型，并在两种代表性的集中途径和三种社会经济情景下，评估了对土地利用和作物生产的潜在影响。研究结果表明土地用途的变化可能取决于作物类型和当前的未来状况。从作物产量来看，结果表明，在大多数情况下，在中度和严酷气候条件下，水稻，油料种子，甘蔗，可可，咖啡和芝麻的产量都可能下降。此外，到2050年将农作物单产提高一倍，总体上可以缓解适度气候变化的负面影响。