It is a privilege to discuss the vibrant field of survey measurement of probabilistic economic expectations in which Manski has played the essential pioneering role. Validations and other research developments related to these new measurements have been richly presented by Manski (2004), Hurd (2009), and now in Manski’s extensive article for the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. In my review, I take this material for granted and focus on some interesting facets of the intellectual background to this important field of research, stress the importance of improved measurement of beliefs, and present a very brief “best case” analysis of future developments. I focus on the importance of systematizing our understanding of “errors” in survey responses: I use the quote marks to indicate that this is generally hard to define, let alone to measure. The approach I suggest that has the most promise in this regard takes seriously how attentive survey respondents are to the questions posed.

中文翻译：

---

评论

很荣幸能够讨论充满活力的概率经济预期调查测量领域，曼斯基在其中发挥了重要的开创性作用。Manski（2004 年）、Hurd（2009 年）以及现在 Manski 为 NBER 宏观经济学年刊撰写的大量文章中详细介绍了与这些新测量方法相关的验证和其他研究进展。在我的评论中，我认为这些材料是理所当然的，并专注于这一重要研究领域的知识背景的一些有趣方面，强调改进信念测量的重要性，并对未来发展进行非常简短的“最佳案例”分析。我专注于系统化我们对调查回复中“错误”的理解的重要性：我使用引号表示这通常很难定义，更不用说衡量了。