Abstract Migration and remittances are argued to be an effective mechanism for mitigating poverty, as well as a coping mechanism for disadvantaged households with no or little employment and earning opportunities in Kosovo. A considerable part is reported to be directed towards consumption and very little for investment or enterpreneurship purposes. The high dependence of households on remittances suggests that poverty rates would be much higher without the safety net provided through migration and remittances. The conventional approach of empirically estimating determinants of remittances, including those focusing on Kosovo, treats both remittance and migration behaviour as independent decisions. Empirically estimating determinants of remittances while overlooking the importance of variables that influenced the decision to migrate will leave out these determinants and also bias the results. Hence, this study treats migration and remittance decision as a joint process and focuses on the household. More precisely, it analyses the impact that remittances and migration have on the poverty in Kosovo, in a hypothetical case, without remittances and migration using data from the Household Budget Survey 2011. Due to the potential presence of selection bias, this study uses a two-stage Heckman-type selection procedure which suggests that there is no selection bias. The study develops counterfactual consumption estimates for remittance recipient households through the use of survey bootstrap procedure to predict the consumption of households in the case of no remittances. The results support the hypothesis that remittances increase the consumption of recipient households. The poverty rate would be higher for a considerable proportion of households in the case of no remittances. The poverty rates would increase particularly in rural areas. The novelty of this study lies on the methodological approach chosen to investigate the impact of remittances on poverty in Kosovo. In contrast to previous analysis, this study controls for potential selection bias and empirically assesses whether the expectations on the poverty reducing effect of remittances in Kosovo hold.

中文翻译：

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汇款是否减轻了科索沃的贫困？-反事实分析

摘要移民和汇款被认为是缓解贫困的有效机制，也是对在科索沃没有就业机会或就业机会少或有机会的处境不利家庭的一种应对机制。据报道，其中很大一部分是针对消费的，很少用于投资或创业目的。家庭对汇款的高度依赖表明，如果没有通过移民和汇款提供的安全网，贫困率将会更高。根据经验估算汇款决定因素的传统方法（包括侧重于科索沃的决定）将汇款和移民行为视为独立决策。根据经验估算汇款的决定因素，而忽略了影响迁移决定的变量的重要性，将忽略这些决定因素，并使结果产生偏差。因此，本研究将移民和汇款决策视为一个共同过程，并重点关注家庭。更准确地说，在假设的情况下，使用2011年家庭预算调查的数据，分析了汇款和移民对科索沃贫困的影响。由于选择偏见的潜在存在，本研究使用了两个阶段的Heckman类型选择过程，表明没有选择偏差。该研究通过使用调查自举程序来预测汇款接收家庭的事实消费估计，以预测无汇款情况下的家庭消费。结果支持以下假设：汇款增加了受援家庭的消费。在没有汇款的情况下，相当一部分家庭的贫困率会更高。贫困率将特别是在农村地区增加。这项研究的新颖性在于选择用来调查汇款对科索沃贫困的影响的方法学方法。与以前的分析相比，本研究控制了潜在的选择偏见，并通过经验评估了对科索沃汇款对减贫影响的期望是否成立。结果支持以下假设：汇款增加了受援家庭的消费。在没有汇款的情况下，相当一部分家庭的贫困率会更高。贫困率将特别是在农村地区增加。这项研究的新颖性在于选择用来调查汇款对科索沃贫困的影响的方法学方法。与以前的分析相比，本研究控制了潜在的选择偏见，并通过经验评估了对科索沃汇款对减贫影响的期望是否成立。结果支持以下假设：汇款增加了受援家庭的消费。在没有汇款的情况下，相当一部分家庭的贫困率会更高。贫困率将特别是在农村地区增加。这项研究的新颖性在于选择用来调查汇款对科索沃贫困的影响的方法学方法。与以前的分析相比，本研究控制了潜在的选择偏见，并通过经验评估了对科索沃汇款对减贫影响的期望是否成立。这项研究的新颖性在于选择用来调查汇款对科索沃贫困的影响的方法学方法。与以前的分析相比，本研究控制了潜在的选择偏见，并通过经验评估了对科索沃汇款对减贫影响的期望是否成立。这项研究的新颖性在于选择用来调查汇款对科索沃贫困的影响的方法学方法。与以前的分析相比，本研究控制了潜在的选择偏见，并通过经验评估了对科索沃汇款对减贫影响的期望是否成立。