Abstract Although theories on channels of monetary policy transmission emphasize indirect monetary policy effect on inflation and output, empirical literature is surprisingly rooted in a direct approach. The use of variants of vector autoregression, with theoretical ordering of variables, does not only fail to quantify the indirect effect, but are also fraught with disagreements on identification of shocks of monetary policy. We revisit the interest rate and lending channels of monetary policy transmission in an approach that is grounded in theory and elicits step-by-step transmission of monetary policy impulses and the eventual effect on inflation in South Africa. We find interest rate and lending channels to be operative in South Africa. For the interest rate channel, a percentage restriction in monetary policy increases lending rate by 0.29%; a percentage increase in the lending rate reduces investment by 0.063%; and a percentage fall in investment reduces inflation by 0.074%. For the lending channel, a percentage restriction of monetary policy reduces banking sector credit by 0.22%; a percentage fall in private sector credit reduces investment by 0.20%; and a percentage decline in investment reduces inflation by 0.086%. These results are robust to different samples and specifications.

中文翻译：

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从理论处方重新审视利率和货币政策传导的借贷渠道

摘要 尽管货币政策传导渠道理论强调货币政策对通货膨胀和产出的间接影响，但实证文献令人惊讶地植根于直接方法。使用向量自回归的变体，以及变量的理论排序，不仅无法量化间接影响，而且在识别货币政策冲击方面也充满了分歧。我们以一种以理论为基础的方法重新审视货币政策传导的利率和贷款渠道，并引出货币政策冲动的逐步传导以及对南非通胀的最终影响。我们发现利率和贷款渠道在南非有效。利率渠道方面，货币政策限幅上调贷款利率0.29%；贷款利率的增加使投资减少 0.063%；投资的百分比下降会使通货膨胀率降低 0.074%。对于贷款渠道，货币政策的百分比限制使银行业信贷减少0.22%；私营部门信贷下降的百分比会使投资减少 0.20%；投资的百分比下降会使通货膨胀率降低 0.086%。这些结果对于不同的样品和规格是稳健的。