Abstract It is a well-established regularity that permanent oil price shocks do not have a permanent effect on the current account deficit. This requires that sub-components of the current account or trade balance will make the necessary adjustments to accommodate the higher energy bill of a country triggered by permanent crude oil price increases. Empirical evidence gathered from Turkey reveals that, in the long run, balancing the current account is provided by a permanent increase in the net exports of Agricultural Production, Maintenance and Repair Services, Travel, Construction, Financial Services, Compensation of Employees, and Goods under Merchanting (non-tradable components of the current account balance); and a permanent decrease in the net exports of Mining, Fishery, Other Goods for BEC Classification, Investment Income, Manufacturing Services on Physical Inputs Owned by Others, and Transport balances mostly in sectors that use energy heavily in production. All these responses are found to be statistically significant in the more than 24 periods we consider in this study.

中文翻译：

---

油价冲击和经常账户余额的构成

摘要 永久性油价冲击不会对经常账户赤字产生永久性影响，这是一个公认的规律。这要求经常账户或贸易差额的子组成部分将进行必要的调整，以适应因原油价格永久上涨引发的一国能源费用增加。从土耳其收集的经验证据表明，从长远来看，经常账户平衡是由农业生产、维护和维修服务、旅行、建筑、金融服务、雇员补偿和商品的净出口永久增加提供的。交易（当前账户余额的不可交易部分）；采矿、渔业、其他 BEC 分类商品、投资收入的净出口永久减少，其他人拥有的实物投入的制造服务和运输平衡主要在生产中大量使用能源的部门中。在我们在本研究中考虑的超过 24 个时期中，所有这些反应都被发现具有统计学意义。