Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.

中文翻译：

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东盟及其对话伙伴的TPP后贸易政策选择：使用CGE分析的“偏好排序”

特朗普退出跨太平洋伙伴关系组织（TPP）和他的“美国优先”贸易议程，引发了人们对亚太地区大型自由贸易协定的第二轮关注。各国正在评估后TPP时代的替代贸易政策行动。利用修正的GTAP模型估算的全国实际GDP增长来为10个东南亚国家联盟成员及其六个区域对话伙伴构建“优先顺序”，本文提出了一些面向政策的发现。首先，在不可能达成多边协议的情况下，拥有区域贸易协议的国家比没有区域贸易协议的国家更好。第二，区域全面经济伙伴关系可能比《跨太平洋伙伴关系全面进步协议》具有更高的有利影响。第三，对于双轨国家，分别执行两个协议要比分别执行要好。第四，开放的区域主义的影响可能会大于封闭和相互的影响。展望未来，本文认为，各国应在贸易政策上采取“多轨，多阶段”的方法。