Abstract

Despite the striking similarities in strategic environment of Japan and South Korea, US deterrence through nonproliferation policy toward the two allies varied in terms of its measures applied: reward-based deterrence and threat-based deterrence. Using the critical junctures framework, this paper argues that 1) domestic structural circumstances of divided with idealist bias or unified with realist bias in two allies led to different local responses to US policy that signalled the level of credibility of US security guarantee; 2) intermediaries that played a critical role in promoting mutual trust and confidence have influenced the credibility and confidence on intra-alliance level; 3) this credibility and confidence had shaped the direction of the US deterrence strategy of reward-based deterrence for Japan and threat-based deterrence for South Korea.

摘要

尽管日本和韩国在战略环境上有着惊人的相似之处，但美国通过防扩散政策对这两个盟国采取的威慑措施在其所采取的措施上有所不同：基于奖励的威慑和基于威胁的威慑。运用关键时刻框架，本文认为：1）两个盟国在理想主义偏见或现实主义偏见中分裂的国内结构性环境导致当地对美国政策的不同反应，标志着美国安全保障的可信度水平；2) 在促进互信和信任方面发挥关键作用的中介影响了联盟内部的公信力和信心；