Countries with large debts stocks are vulnerable to the vagaries of the markets. Confidence crises can arise out of nowhere, constricting access to the markets. Hence, the question arises as to whether these countries should put in place mechanisms that will help them better prepare for the possibility of crisis. In effect, the choice is whether to buy insurance. The cost of buying such insurance is that the possibility that markets will see the sovereign’s proactive steps to protect against a crisis not as an indication of prudent governance but rather as an indicator that a crisis is imminent. In this article, we use the case of a Euro area country (Italy) with a large debt stock and that has been hit particularly hard by Covid-19 to set forth its options, as of 2020, to anticipate a possible future debt restructuring. It can: do nothing, do a little; or do something substantial.

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Covid-19时代如何重组欧元区主权债务

拥有大量债务存量的国家很容易受到市场变幻莫测的影响。信心危机可能会突然出现，限制市场准入。因此，问题是这些国家是否应该建立机制来帮助他们更好地为可能发生的危机做好准备。实际上，选择是是否购买保险。购买此类保险的成本在于，市场可能会将主权国家为抵御危机而采取的主动措施视为审慎治理的标志，而是危机迫在眉睫的指标。在本文中，我们以一个拥有大量债务存量且受到 Covid-19 重创的欧元区国家（意大利）为例，阐述其截至 2020 年的选择，以预测未来可能的债务重组。它可以：什么都不做，做一点；或者做一些实质性的事情。