Despite a conventional belief that prosperity boosts presidential popularity, research on the effect of economic and political factors on presidential popularity shows wide variation. What are the main contributing factors when people evaluate their political leaders? How do economic conditions and perception of corruption influence people’s evaluations of their political leaders? Using comprehensive, up-to-date panel data covering 20 countries, mostly from Latin America, and also including South Korea and the United States, from 1988 to 2016, this study shows that the effect of gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and unemployment rate are strong throughout the period considered. From the year 2000, inflation and perception of corruption become significant. In highly corrupt countries, however, the significance of corruption becomes more salient, together with GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, as citizens of these countries begin to evaluate their leaders in terms of their determination to address these problems. In countries with low approval ratings, voters generally weigh GDP growth rate more heavily.

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总统支持率的决定因素：参考拉丁美洲的跨国分析

尽管人们普遍认为繁荣会提高总统受欢迎程度，但对经济和政治因素对总统受欢迎程度影响的研究显示出很大差异。当人们评价他们的政治领导人时，主要的影响因素是什么？经济状况和对腐败的看法如何影响人们对其政治领导人的评价？本研究使用涵盖 20 个国家（主要来自拉丁美洲，还包括韩国和美国）的 1988 年至 2016 年的全面、最新面板数据，表明国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长率和在所考虑的整个时期内，失业率都很高。从 2000 年开始，通货膨胀和腐败观念变得显着。然而，在高度腐败的国家，随着这些国家的公民开始评估其领导人解决这些问题的决心，腐败的重要性与GDP增长率和失业率一起变得更加突出。在支持率较低的国家，选民通常更重视 GDP 增长率。