What causes civilian victimization in conventional civil wars and in conventional wars that experience insurgencies? The authors argue that a key driver of civilian victimization is the vulnerability of the incumbent forces, specifically when the conflict’s front line is shifting. Vulnerability is a function of informational and logistical challenges: when the front line is moving, incumbents face increased informational uncertainty and unstable supply chains that augment their vulnerability. Thus, incumbents will increase the use of civilian victimization in response to a scarcity of high-quality information on the location and identity of insurgents, to limit possible information leaks, and to contain supply disruption and logistics support to adversaries. The authors support their argument using matched difference-in-differences analyses of original subnational data on Nazi-Fascist violence in World War II Italy (1943–1945) and qualitative evidence.

中文翻译：

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脆弱性和平民受害的逻辑

是什么导致平民在常规内战和经历叛乱的常规战争中受害？作者认为，平民受害的一个关键驱动因素是现有部队的脆弱性，特别是当冲突的前线正在转移时。脆弱性是信息和后勤挑战的一个功能：当前线移动时，现有企业面临着增加的信息不确定性和不稳定的供应链，从而增加了他们的脆弱性。因此，在位者将增加对平民受害的使用，以应对缺乏关于叛乱分子位置和身份的高质量信息，限制可能的信息泄露，并遏制对对手的供应中断和后勤支持。