ABSTRACT

The increasing interest in economic diversification, technological sophistication, and production specialization again places structural change at the centre of the economic development theory. However, efforts to measure structural change from a long-run perspective remain scarce. We aim to fill this gap using a synthetic indicator that represents the dynamics of structural change in the long-run and allows us to identify different development patterns. We calculate this indicator including information on 13 production sectors, for a small natural-resource intensive economy (Uruguay), from 1870 to 2017. Our results adequately describe the development patterns that, according to the literature, characterize Uruguayan economic history. In the long run, economic growth causes structural change; only during the First Globalization period the opposite relation prevailed. The decline of the index – which indicates ‘backward movements’ in the production structure – is found in periods of economic crisis and downturn cycles. This dynamics reflects critical time periods associated with the (relative) primarization of the economy. In other words, near to each crisis episode, the economy reacted by going back to primary production probably due to the search for traditional comparative advantages or because in such negative phases the weakest and most exposed sectors were those other than agriculture.

摘要

人们对经济多样化，技术成熟度和生产专业化的兴趣日益浓厚，再次将结构性变化置于经济发展理论的中心。但是，从长期的角度衡量结构变化的努力仍然很少。我们旨在使用一个综合指标来填补这一空白，该指标代表长期的结构变化动态，并允许我们确定不同的发展模式。我们计算了该指标，其中包括1870年至2017年间小型自然资源密集型经济体（乌拉圭）的13个生产部门的信息。根据文献，我们的结果充分描述了乌拉圭经济历史特征的发展模式。从长远来看，经济增长会导致结构变化；只有在第一次全球化时期，相反的关系才盛行。该指数的下降（表明生产结构出现“向后移动”）出现在经济危机和低迷时期。这种动态反映了与（相对）经济基本化相关的关键时期。换句话说，在每次危机发生之前，经济的反应是回到了初级生产，这可能是由于寻求传统的比较优势，或者是在这种消极阶段，最薄弱和最易受到冲击的部门是农业以外的部门。这种动态反映了与（相对）经济基本化相关的关键时期。换句话说，在每次危机发生之前，经济的反应是回到了初级生产，这可能是由于寻求传统的比较优势，或者是在这种消极阶段，最薄弱和最易受到冲击的部门是农业以外的部门。这种动态反映了与（相对）经济基本化相关的关键时期。换句话说，在每次危机发生之前，经济的反应是回到了初级生产，这可能是由于寻求传统的比较优势，或者是在这种消极阶段，最薄弱和最易受到冲击的部门是农业以外的部门。