Abstract

Using monthly data over the period 2010M1-2018M12 we investigate the impact of the real yuna-pound rate on the trade balance of each of the 68 2-digit industries that trade between Britain and China. When a linear ARDL model was estimated, we found short-run symmetric effects in the trade balance of 45 industries that lasted into the long run only in 24 industries. Comparable numbers from the estimates of the nonlinear model were 64 and 39, respectively. The symmetric (asymmetric) J-curve effect received support in 17 (19) industries from the linear (nonlinear) model. Although the increase from the symmetric to asymmetric J-curve effect was not substantial, for the largest industry, i.e., industry coded 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment with 19.56% share of trade), while the symmetric J-curve was not supported, the asymmetric J-curve was. This highlights the significance of the nonlinear adjustment of the yuan-pound exchange rate.

摘要

使用2010年1月至2018年12月期间的月度数据，我们研究了实际尤纳兑英镑汇率对中英之间进行贸易的68个2位数字行业中每个行业的贸易平衡的影响。当估计线性ARDL模型时，我们发现45个行业的贸易平衡中存在短期对称效应，而长期影响仅持续到24个行业。非线性模型估计的可比较数字分别为64和39。对称（非对称）J曲线效应在线性（非线性）模型中获得了17（19）个行业的支持。尽管从对称J曲线到不对称J曲线的增加并不显着，但是对于最大的行业，即行业代码85（占贸易份额19.56％的电气机械和设备），虽然不支持对称J曲线，但是不对称J曲线是。