Purpose

Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit.

Findings

The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model.

Originality/value

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertainty-prone environment.

中文翻译：

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预测散装造船订单的经济物理学方法：牛顿万有引力定律的应用

目的

散装运输主要促进原材料在全球范围内的顺畅流动。无论如何，预测大宗造船订单是学术领域很少研究的领域。本研究旨在开创一种结合自回归数据分析技术的经济物理学方法，用于散装造船订单预测。

设计/方法/方法

通过提供一种创新的预测方法，本研究提供了一种全面而直接的经济物理学方法来预测散货船的新造船订单。该模型已经通过自回归综合移动平均分析进行评估，结果表明拟合相对稳定。

发现

经济物理学模型的结果表明相对稳定的良好拟合。尽管需要改进相关的海事数据及其质量，但细化预测变量的灵活性确保了这种基于经济物理学的预测模型的稳健性。

原创性/价值

通过提供一种创新的预测方法，本研究提供了一种全面而直接的经济物理学方法来预测散货船的新造船订单。研究结果有助于航运投资者在资本密集型和易不确定性的环境中做出决策。