We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused 600,000 deaths in Italy: 1.2% of the population. Going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of 6.5%, which dissipated within 3 years. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on regional economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions.

中文翻译：

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大流行和区域经济增长：来自意大利大流感的证据

我们调查了 1918 年大流感与意大利区域经济增长之间的联系，该国公共当局为遏制传染而采取的措施有限或无效。大流行在意大利造成 600,000 人死亡：占总人口的 1.2%。从死亡率最低的地区到死亡率最高的地区，人均 GDP 增长率下降了 6.5%，并在 3 年内消失。我们的估计提供了在没有非药物公共卫生干预的情况下流行病对区域经济增长的不利影响的上限。