Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278-901 million by 2100.

中文翻译：

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估算气候变化对美国16个主要渔业的经济影响。

观测证据表明，随着海洋温度的升高，海洋物种正在改变其地理分布。这些转变对美国渔业和海产品消费者产生了影响。本文提供的分析采用了两阶段逆需求模型，根据对可利用热量的栖息地的预测变化，估算了2021年至2100年美国16种渔业的商业捕鱼预计增加或减少对消费者福利的影响。一起分析的渔业占当前美国商业捕鱼收入的56％。该分析比较了两种气候情景下的福利影响：高排放案例假设减少大气温室气体的努力有限；低排放案例假设减少排放的温室气体。如果以3％的价格折现，消费者剩余影响的现值在低排放情况下为净亏损21亿美元（2018年美元），在高排放情况下为42亿美元。到2100年，预计年度损失将达到278-901百万美元。