Belarusian citizens elected their first president in 1994. More than 20 years later, in October 2015, the same person triumphantly won the fifth consecutive presidential election. In August 2020, President Lukashenko’s attempt to get re-elected for the sixth time ended in months’ long mass protests against the electoral fraud, unspeakable violence used by the riot police against peaceful protesters and the deepest political crisis in the modern history of Belarus. This article analyzes how and why the first democratically elected Belarusian president attained this long-serving status. It suggests that his political longevity was conditioned by a specific social contract with the society that was sustained for many years. In light of the recent events, it is obvious that the contract is breached with the regime no longer living up to the bargain with the Belarusian people. As a result, the citizens seem unwilling to maintain their obligation for loyalty. We analyze the escalating daily price for maintaining the status quo and conclude considering the possible implications of this broken pact for the future of Belarus.

白俄罗斯公民于 1994 年选出了他们的第一任总统。 20 多年后，2015 年 10 月，同一个人连续第五次赢得总统选举。2020 年 8 月，卢卡申科总统第六次连任的企图以反对选举舞弊、防暴警察对和平抗议者使用难以形容的暴力以及白俄罗斯现代史上最严重的政治危机的长达数月的大规模抗议告终。本文分析了第一位民选白俄罗斯总统如何以及为何获得这种长期任职地位。这表明他的政治长寿受到与社会的特定社会契约的制约，这种契约持续了多年。鉴于最近发生的事件，很明显，由于政权不再履行与白俄罗斯人民的交易，合同被破坏了。结果，公民似乎不愿意维持他们的忠诚义务。我们分析了维持现状不断上涨的每日价格，并得出结论，考虑到这一破裂的协议对白俄罗斯的未来可能产生的影响。