Renewable energy sources increasingly seek to compete in electricity markets outside of traditional support schemes. In this context, market values and the cannibalization risks of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) take on crucial roles for investment decisions and potential investors. Most existing studies analyse the market value of renewables at different penetration levels, looking at the extent to which PV panels and wind turbines cannibalize their own market revenues. This article explores how other market and policy drivers affect wind and PV value factors and capture prices in real-world settings over the next three decades. To this end, we model and analyse a number of scenarios with altered natural gas, coal and carbon prices as well as varied availabilities of wind and PV in Europe. We find that higher natural gas and carbon prices result in lower wind and PV value factors and vice versa, while the influence of coal prices is rather limited. Our results show substantial merit order effects on absolute wind and PV capture prices, following varied availabilities yet no significant cross-cannibalization between the two technologies.

中文翻译：

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价值因素、捕获价格和同类相食：可再生能源决策者的噩梦

可再生能源越来越多地寻求在传统支持计划之外的电力市场中竞争。在这种情况下，风能和太阳能光伏 (PV) 的市场价值和蚕食风险对投资决策和潜在投资者起着至关重要的作用。大多数现有研究分析了不同渗透水平的可再生能源的市场价值，着眼于光伏电池板和风力涡轮机蚕食其自身市场收入的程度。本文探讨了其他市场和政策驱动因素如何影响风能和光伏价值因素，并在未来三十年的现实环境中捕捉价格。为此，我们对天然气、煤炭和碳价格发生变化以及欧洲风能和光伏的不同可用性的许多情景进行了建模和分析。我们发现较高的天然气和碳价格导致较低的风能和光伏价值因素，反之亦然，而煤炭价格的影响则相当有限。我们的结果表明，在两种技术之间存在不同的可用性但没有显着的交叉蚕食的情况下，对绝对风能和光伏捕获价格的显着优先顺序影响。