Apology diplomacy promises to assuage historical grievances held by foreign publics, yet in practice appears to ignite domestic backlash, raising questions about its efficacy. This article develops a theory of how political apologies affect public approval of an apologizing government across domestic and foreign contexts. The authors test its implications using large-scale survey experiments in Japan and the United States. In the surveys, the authors present vignettes about World War II grievances and randomize the nature of a government apology. They find that apology-making, both as statements acknowledging wrongdoing and as expressions of remorse, boosts approval in the recipient state. But in the apologizing state, backlash is likely among individuals with strong hierarchical group dispositions—manifested as nationalism, social-dominance orientation, and conservatism—and among those who do not consider the recipient a strategically important partner. This microlevel evidence reveals how leaders face a crucial trade-off between improving support abroad and risking backlash at home, with implications for the study of diplomatic communication and transitional justice.

中文翻译：

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政治道歉对公众舆论的影响

道歉外交承诺缓和外国公众的历史不满，但在实践中似乎会引发国内反弹，引发对其有效性的质疑。本文提出了一个理论，即政治道歉如何影响公众在国内外背景下对道歉政府的认可。作者使用日本和美国的大规模调查实验来测试其影响。在调查中，作者展示了关于二战不满的小插曲，并随机化了政府道歉的性质。他们发现，道歉​​，无论是作为承认错误的声明还是作为悔恨的表达，都可以提高接受国的认可度。但在道歉的状态下，强烈的等级团体倾向的个人可能会遭到强烈反对——表现为民族主义，社会主导取向和保守主义——以及那些不认为接受者是战略上重要的合作伙伴的人。这一微观层面的证据揭示了领导人如何在改善国外支持和冒着国内反弹的风险之间进行关键权衡，这对外交沟通和过渡司法的研究具有重要意义。