The way in which jurors perceive reports of forensic evidence is of critical importance, especially in cases of forensic identification evidence that require examiners to compare items and assess whether they originate from a common source. The current study discusses methods for studying group differences among mock jurors and illustrates them using a reanalysis of data regarding lay perceptions of forensic science evidence. Conventional approaches that consider subpopulations defined a priori are compared with mixture models that infer group structure from the data, allowing detection of subgroups that cohere in unexpected ways. Mixture models allow researchers to determine whether a population comprises subpopulations that respond to evidence differently and then to consider how those subpopulations might be characterized. The reanalysis reported here shows that mixture models can enhance understanding of lay perceptions of an important type of forensic science evidence (DNA and fingerprint comparisons), providing insight into how the perceived strength of that evidence varies as a function of the language forensic experts use to describe their findings. This novel application of mixture models illustrates how such models can be used, more generally, to explore the importance of juror characteristics in jury decision making.

中文翻译：

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使用混合模型检查陪审员之间的群体差异：涉及法医科学证据感知强度的说明

陪审员看待法医证据报告的方式至关重要，特别是在法医鉴定证据需要审查员比较项目并评估它们是否来自共同来源的情况下。当前的研究讨论了研究模拟陪审员之间的群体差异的方法，并通过重新分析有关法医科学证据的非专业看法的数据来说明这些方法。考虑先验定义的亚群的传统方法与从数据推断组结构的混合模型进行比较，从而允许检测以意想不到的方式凝聚在一起的子组。混合模型允许研究人员确定一个群体是否包含对证据有不同反应的亚群，然后考虑如何表征这些亚群。此处报告的再分析表明，混合模型可以增强对一种重要类型的法医科学证据（DNA 和指纹比较）的外行看法的理解，从而深入了解该证据的感知强度如何随法医专家使用的语言而变化。描述他们的发现。混合模型的这种新颖应用说明了如何使用此类模型，更一般地，探索陪审员特征在陪审团决策中的重要性。