ABSTRACT

Drawing the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data, a comprehensive treatment model indicates a strong positive influence of incarceration on premature death risk. Models adjust for numerous covariates of mortality, including demographics, family background, and a range of health and behavioral indicators measured during childhood, as well as selection into incarceration (“treatment”). This study expands extant research by observing much longer panel data, closer to the mortality curve. The main treatment effect reveals risk of premature death by one’s mid-fifties being increased by 13.9 percentage-points. Results also indicate that young adulthood incarceration shortens lives equally for Blacks and non-Blacks.

摘要

根据 1979 年全国青年纵向调查数据，综合治疗模型表明监禁对过早死亡风险具有强烈的积极影响。模型针对死亡率的众多协变量进行调整，包括人口统计、家庭背景、儿童时期测量的一系列健康和行为指标，以及入狱选择（“治疗”）。这项研究通过观察更接近死亡率曲线的更长的面板数据来扩展现有的研究。主要治疗效果显示，50 岁左右过早死亡的风险增加了 13.9 个百分点。结果还表明，青年时期的监禁对黑人和非黑人来说同样缩短了生命。