In this study, we examine children’s National Assessment Program—Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) achievement predictors, which may enable or limit their numeracy performance and assess the relative importance of the predictor variables. Our data source was the NAPLAN numeracy results of Queensland schools from 2014 to 2017. Years 3 and 5 children’s NAPLAN numeracy scores were analysed using a hierarchical multiple regression model. We examined eight variables grouped into four themes to determine their predictive value for children’s numeracy performance in NAPLAN. Findings from this study indicate that parent’s educational level, parent’s occupation and indigenous status variables accounted for 10–11% of the total variance, while geolocation and sector type contributed an additional 0.2–0.4% of the variance. Gender and language background other than English (LBOTE) contributed 0.1–0.4% of the variance. These results were consistent across levels (Years 3 and 5) and test years (2014–2017). When these predictors were controlled, the influence of parent’s post-school education and LBOTE status were less and non-significant. Previous NAPLAN numeracy results for Year 5 children were found to be very large in its predictive value (R² = 0.50). The implications of these results for teachers, parents and researchers are described.

在这项研究中，我们检查了儿童的国家评估计划——识字和算术 (NAPLAN) 成绩预测因素，这可能会启用或限制他们的算术表现，并评估预测变量的相对重要性。我们的数据来源是昆士兰学校 2014 年至 2017 年的 NAPLAN 算术成绩。使用分层多元回归模型分析了 3 年级和 5 年级儿童的 NAPLAN 算术成绩。我们检查了分为四个主题的八个变量，以确定它们对儿童在 NAPLAN 中的算术表现的预测价值。这项研究的结果表明，父母的教育水平、父母的职业和土著地位变量占总方差的 10-11%，而地理位置和部门类型贡献了额外的 0.2-0.4% 的方差。英语以外的性别和语言背景 (LBOTE) 贡献了 0.1-0.4% 的方差。这些结果在各个级别（第 3 年和第 5 年）和测试年（2014-2017 年）之间是一致的。当控制这些预测因素时，父母的学后教育和 LBOTE 状态的影响较小且不显着。之前 5 年级儿童的 NAPLAN 算术结果被发现具有非常大的预测价值（R²  = 0.50）。描述了这些结果对教师、家长和研究人员的影响。