Abstract

The 2018 Brazilian presidential elections coupled unprecedented political instability with a close race between two candidates with antagonistic economic agendas. Using this unparalleled scenario, this paper analyzes the role of political events in shaping the returns on financial assets. The regressions using the Propensity Score Matching technique suggest that companies linked to the government had positive cumulative abnormal returns around relevant events compared with otherwise identical firms. These results reinforce the role of political risk on financial markets in emerging economies and allow economic agents to outline strategies to predict stock return behavior during periods of political turmoil.

摘要

2018 年巴西总统选举伴随着前所未有的政治动荡，以及两位经济议程相互对立的候选人之间的激烈角逐。利用这种无与伦比的情景，本文分析了政治事件在塑造金融资产回报方面的作用。使用倾向得分匹配技术进行的回归表明，与其他方面相同的公司相比，与政府有关联的公司在相关事件周围的累积异常回报为正。这些结果强化了政治风险对新兴经济体金融市场的作用，并允许经济主体制定策略来预测政治动荡时期的股票回报行为。