This study investigates the spatial downside and upside rainfall shock effects on tenant household renting behavior and access to rented land in the short-term and medium-term. We model the tenant households’ demand decisions within the state-contingent framework with renting-in of land as a risky input choice. Our data are a 3-year balanced household panel, combined with the corresponding seasonal district-wise rainfall shock data across regional agro-ecological zones in Malawi. Using the correlated and dynamic random effects panel probit and Tobit models that control for unobserved heterogeneity, spatial heterogeneities were revealed. Land rental markets were found to be more active in the Central Region of Malawi with intermediate population density. The 1-year and 2-year lagged downside rainfall shocks enhanced tenant households’ land access. For the more land constrained Southern Region of Malawi, with less prevalence of land rental markets, the 2-year lagged downside rainfall shock is associated with less access to rented land. The revealed dynamic and spatial effects of covariate rainfall shocks on land rental market activity call for further studies on how policies could facilitate rental markets to enhance land-use efficiency and land access for the most land-constrained households in Malawi.

中文翻译：

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降雨冲击能否增加获得租用土地的机会？来自马拉维的证据

本研究调查了短期和中期的空间下行和上行降雨冲击对租户家庭租赁行为和租用土地的影响。我们在状态-条件框架内模拟租户家庭的需求决策，将土地出租作为一种冒险的输入选择。我们的数据是一个 3 年平衡的家庭面板，结合马拉维区域农业生态区相应的季节性地区降雨冲击数据。使用控制未观察到的异质性的相关和动态随机效应面板概率和 Tobit 模型，揭示了空间异质性。在人口密度中等的马拉维中部地区，土地租赁市场更为活跃。1 年和 2 年滞后的下行降雨冲击增强了租户的土地使用权。对于土地更受限制的马拉维南部地区，土地租赁市场的流行程度较低，2 年滞后的下行降雨冲击与获得租赁土地的机会减少有关。协变量降雨冲击对土地租赁市场活动的动态和空间影响要求进一步研究政策如何促进租赁市场，以提高马拉维土地使用效率最高的家庭的土地使用效率和土地使用权。