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Analysis of External Debt Sustainability in Mongolia: An Estimated DSGE Approach
Sustainability ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-30 , DOI: 10.3390/su13158545
Gunbileg Ganbayar

In this study, we assess the effects of the structural shocks on the external debt sustainability in Mongolia, based on an estimated small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the traded, the non-traded, and the mining sectors. The impulse response results show that the traded sector’s productivity shock, the commodity price shock, the mining output shock, and the foreign interest-rate shock have a decreasing effect on external debt accumulation in Mongolia, whereas the non-traded sector’s productivity shock, the household preference shock, and the government spending shock have an increasing effect on the same. Furthermore, we assess Mongolia’s external debt sustainability under the COVID−19 pandemic shock. Under our assumed pandemic scenario, Mongolia’s external debt will increase by 30% from its steady state over the next 10–28 quarters. Our recommended solution in this study is to develop the traded sector, instead of the mining sector, to maintain sustainability of the external debt and to decrease vulnerability of the economy.

中文翻译:

蒙古外债可持续性分析:估计的 DSGE 方法

在本研究中,我们基于估计的小型开放经济 (SOE) 动态随机一般均衡 (DSGE) 模型,评估结构性冲击对蒙古外债可持续性的影响,其中包括贸易、非贸易和采矿业。部门。脉冲响应结果表明,贸易部门的生产率冲击、商品价格冲击、矿业产出冲击和外国利率冲击对蒙古外债积累的影响呈递减趋势,而非贸易部门的生产率冲击、家庭偏好冲击和政府支出冲击在这方面的影响越来越大。此外,我们评估了在 COVID-19 大流行冲击下蒙古的外债可持续性。在我们假设的大流行情况下,在接下来的 10-28 个季度内,蒙古的外债将比其稳定状态增加 30%。我们在本研究中推荐的解决方案是发展贸易部门而不是采矿部门,以保持外债的可持续性并降低经济的脆弱性。
更新日期:2021-07-30
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