This paper examines whether the recent trade war between the US and China would lead to a great power war. In so doing, we rely on two theoretical frameworks, mercantilism and power transition theory, that are likely to link trade war to a military confrontation. Evidence shows that the trade war per se is not a sufficient condition for an all-out war between the US and China. Unlike mercantilists argue, first, we identify the importance of domestic coalitions before trade war being escalated to a military conflict. Second, we find that trade war as economic statecraft is a viable means to suppress a challenger’s capability, which may stop or delay the power transition process. The findings provide implications for middle power countries where strategic choices are required between the two major powers.

本文考察了最近中美之间的贸易战是否会导致大国战争。在这样做时，我们依赖两个理论框架，重商主义和权力转移理论，它们很可能将贸易战与军事对抗联系起来。有证据表明，贸易战本身并不是中美全面战争的充分条件。与重商主义者的论点不同，首先，我们在贸易战升级为军事冲突之前确定国内联盟的重要性。其次，我们发现贸易战作为经济治国方略是压制挑战者能力的可行手段，这可能会阻止或延迟权力转移过程。研究结果对需要在两个大国之间进行战略选择的中等强国提供了启示。