We use a 20 percent longitudinal sample of Canadian personal income tax returns to explore patterns and changes in marital status, with a focus on cohort behaviour. We define five different cohorts, each with a different starting age in 1995, and follow each over a 20-year data period. We consider and compare the changes in cohort patterns, giving special attention to the stability of married and common law unions, and for that purpose distinguishing unions with the same partner from those with a different one. Comparisons of cohort patterns show a shift toward an increased proportion reporting themselves as single or living in a common law union and a decreased proportion reporting married. The proportion married to the same partner declines, and the proportion married to a new partner increases, implying some reduction in marriage stability. Common law unions, more common at younger ages, appear unstable, but much of the apparent instability is removed when common law unions that would transition to married unions with the same partner are taken into account; common law as a premarital first stage appears to be increasingly common. At older ages the death of a partner is the major terminating factor at the end of a marriage, most prominently among males: widowhood (death of a partner) accounts for a much larger fraction of marriage terminations for women, death a much larger fraction for men, reflecting differences in life expectancy and the younger age at marriage of women, on average.

我们使用加拿大个人所得税申报表的 20% 纵向样本来探索婚姻状况的模式和变化，重点是群体行为。我们定义了五个不同的队列，每个队列在 1995 年都有不同的起始年龄，并在 20 年的数据期内跟踪每个队列。我们考虑并比较队列模式的变化，特别关注已婚和同居婚姻的稳定性，并为此目的将具有相同伴侣的结合与具有不同伴侣的结合区分开来。队列模式的比较显示，报告自己单身或生活在同居关系中的比例增加，报告已婚的比例减少。与同一伴侣结婚的比例下降，与新伴侣结婚的比例增加，这意味着婚姻稳定性有所下降。普通法结合在年轻时更常见，看起来不稳定，但当考虑到将过渡到与同一伙伴的已婚结合的普通法结合时，大部分明显的不稳定就被消除了；普通法作为婚前第一阶段似乎越来越普遍。在年龄较大的情况下，伴侣的死亡是婚姻结束时的主要终止因素，在男性中最为突出：寡居（伴侣的死亡）在女性终止婚姻中所占的比例要大得多，死亡对终止婚姻的比例要大得多。男性，这反映了平均预期寿命和女性结婚年龄的差异。但是，当考虑到将过渡到与同一伙伴的已婚结合的普通法结合时，许多明显的不稳定性就被消除了；普通法作为婚前第一阶段似乎越来越普遍。在年龄较大的情况下，伴侣的死亡是婚姻结束时的主要终止因素，在男性中最为突出：寡居（伴侣的死亡）在女性终止婚姻中所占的比例要大得多，死亡对终止婚姻的比例要大得多。男性，这反映了平均预期寿命和女性结婚年龄的差异。但是，当考虑到将过渡到与同一伙伴的已婚结合的普通法结合时，许多明显的不稳定性就被消除了；普通法作为婚前第一阶段似乎越来越普遍。在年龄较大的情况下，伴侣的死亡是婚姻结束时的主要终止因素，在男性中最为突出：寡居（伴侣的死亡）在女性终止婚姻中所占的比例要大得多，死亡对终止婚姻的比例要大得多。男性，这反映了平均预期寿命和女性结婚年龄的差异。