Real estate price growth affects credit risk for several reasons: it provides input for economic forecasts as it’s closely tied to economic growth; when used as collateral by banks, rising real estate prices may decrease both expected and actual losses; and banks may become less risk averse in lending practices in the presence of rising property prices. Therefore, we analyze these effects on loan portfolios’ estimated and realized risks on a local level. Using data of 390 German savings banks, however, we find that real estate prices have little or no impact on savings banks’ credit portfolio risk or risk precautions.

中文翻译：

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房地产市场和贷款：本地增长是否会加剧风险？

房地产价格增长影响信用风险的原因有以下几个：它为经济预测提供输入，因为它与经济增长密切相关；当被银行用作抵押品时，房地产价格上涨可能会减少预期和实际损失；在房地产价格上涨的情况下，银行在贷款实践中的风险厌恶程度可能会降低。因此，我们在地方层面分析了这些对贷款组合的估计和已实现风险的影响。然而，使用 390 家德国储蓄银行的数据，我们发现房地产价格对储蓄银行的信用组合风险或风险防范几乎没有影响。