This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region. We investigate the role of the global factor and the CIS factor in evolution of business cycles in the CIS countries by applying a dynamic factor model. In addition, we also examine whether the role of these two factors has changed over time. Results indicate that overall business cycle synchronization of these countries within the region and globally is low. Russia is the most globally integrated CIS country and Belarus displays the highest degree of co-movement with the CIS factor. Our results show that 2014 Russo–Ukrainian conflict and subsequent Russian sanctions had a profound effect on the region leading to an increase in synchronization within the CIS and decline in the role of the global factor.

中文翻译：

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独联体地区商业周期同步

本文考察了独立国家联合体 (CIS) 地区的商业周期同步。我们通过应用动态因素模型研究了全球因素和独联体因素在独联体国家商业周期演变中的作用。此外，我们还检查了这两个因素的作用是否随时间发生了变化。结果表明，这些国家在区域内和全球范围内的整体经济周期同步性较低。俄罗斯是全球一体化程度最高的独联体国家，白俄罗斯与独联体因素的联动程度最高。我们的研究结果表明，2014 年俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突和随后的俄罗斯制裁对该地区产生了深远的影响，导致独联体内部同步性增加，全球因素的作用下降。