Purpose

Post-disaster housing reconstruction (PDHR) demands a considerable percentage of global property investment, yet the post-disaster environment presents intricate challenges to reconstruction financing for governments and at the same time, revenue uncertainty for private investors. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for tackling land shortage and the financial challenges of PDHR in the aftermath of a disaster.

Design/methodology/approach

This study developed a methodology based on a combined minimum revenue guarantee and maximum revenue cap model using a well-established real options analysis (ROA) for revenue risk sharing in PDHR projects and land readjustment (LR) for finance. The applicability of the purported model is demonstrated through an illustrative example.

Findings

The results show that flexibility in the options could increase the PDHR contractor’s risk profile by increasing the expected value of the contractor investment and reducing the probability of investment loss. On the other side, a cap on the contractor revenue stream would allow the government to benefit from any excess in revenue and would counterbalance the value of the option.

Practical implications

The framework proposed in this study could serve as a practical risk-revenue sharing in PDHR projects. Governments and policymakers could use the findings to enable the successful delivery of PDHR projects and consequently bring the quality of life of affected people to pre-disaster conditions.

Originality/value

This study can be considered as a first attempt toward the use of the Australian barrier style options structure, and the trinomial lattice valuation model in PDHR projects, which incorporates LR, public-private partnerships, governmental guarantees and PDHR concepts in one ROA-based framework.

中文翻译：

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灾后住房重建收益风险分担实物期权分析

目的

灾后住房重建 (PDHR) 需要相当比例的全球房地产投资，但灾后环境对政府的重建融资提出了错综复杂的挑战，同时也给私人投资者带来了收入的不确定性。本研究的目的是开发一种方法，以解决灾难后土地短缺和 PDHR 的财务挑战。

设计/方法/方法

本研究开发了一种基于最小收入保证和最大收入上限组合模型的方法，该模型使用成熟的实物期权分析 (ROA) 来分担 PDHR 项目的收入风险和土地调整 (LR) 以进行融资。通过一个说明性示例证明了所谓模型的适用性。

发现

结果表明，选项的灵活性可以通过增加承包商投资的预期价值和降低投资损失的可能性来增加 PDHR 承包商的风险状况。另一方面，承包商收入流的上限将使政府能够从任何超额收入中受益，并抵消期权的价值。

实际影响

本研究中提出的框架可以作为 PDHR 项目中实际的风险收入共享。政府和政策制定者可以利用这些发现来成功实施 PDHR 项目，从而使受影响人群的生活质量恢复到灾前状态。

原创性/价值

本研究可被视为首次尝试在 PDHR 项目中使用澳大利亚障碍式期权结构和三项式点阵估值模型，该模型将 LR、公私合作伙伴关系、政府担保和 PDHR 概念纳入一个基于 ROA 的框架中.