We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus mis-identified and under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there are well-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from various viewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute confusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible solutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both scholarly (social) and topical (cognitive) communities — two facets of knowledge production studies here that contribute towards the evolution of knowledge in and around a problem, termed a knowledge trajectory — associated with three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitive diversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of the comprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive dimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness associated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results identify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address given recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.

中文翻译：

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以概念和解决方案不确定性为特征的恶劣环境问题的社会和认知维度

我们开发了一个定量框架来理解在自然、社会和技术复杂系统的交叉点出现的一类邪恶问题。棘手的问题反映了我们对相互依存的全球系统及其构成的系统性风险的不完全理解；此类问题无法解决，因为它们往往定义不明确，因此被问题解决者社区错误识别和低估。虽然从不同的角度解决跨界问题有充分证明的好处，但不同方法的整合可能会导致对核心概念和可行解决方案的集体理解产生混淆。我们通过分析学术（社会）和主题（认知）社区的发展来探索这个悖论——这里知识生产研究的两个方面有助于知识在一个问题中及其周围的演变，称为知识轨迹——与三个邪恶的问题：森林砍伐、入侵物种和野生动物贸易。我们假设，社会和认知多样性增长动态的饱和是减少围绕每个邪恶问题出现的综合知识轨迹演变的不确定性的指标。以全面的文献计量数据为基础，捕捉每个问题领域的社会和认知维度，因此，我们开发了一个框架，评估知识轨迹动态的稳定性，作为与概念和解决方案不确定性相关的邪恶指标。因此，我们的结果将野生动物贸易确定为一个棘手的问题，鉴于最近其知识轨迹的不稳定性，可能难以解决。