Purpose

The Green Revolution transformed agriculture in the Indian State of Punjab, with positive spillovers to the rest of India, but recently the state’s economy has fallen dramatically in rankings of per capita state output. Understanding the trajectory of Punjab’s economy has important lessons for all of India. Economic development is typically associated with changes in economic structure, but Punjab has remained relatively reliant on agriculture rather than shifting economic activity to manufacturing and services, where productivity growth might be greater.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors empirically examine structural change in the Punjab economy in the context of structural change and economic growth across the States of India. The authors calculate structural change indices and map their pattern over time. The authors estimate panel regressions and time-varying parameter regressions, as well as performing productivity change decompositions into within-sector and structural changes.

Findings

Panel regressions and time-varying-coefficient regressions suggest a significant positive influence of structural change on state-level growth. In addition, growth positively affected structural change across India’s states. The relative lack of structural change in Punjab’s economy is implicated in its relatively poor recent growth performance. Comparisons with a handful of other states reinforce this conclusion: Punjab’s lack of economic diversification is a plausible explanation for its lagging economic performance.

Originality/value

This paper performs a novel empirical analysis of structural change and growth, simultaneously using three different approaches: panel regressions, time-varying parameter regressions and productivity decompositions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the only paper we are aware of that combines these three approaches.

中文翻译：

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印度的结构变化和经济增长：旁遮普邦的比较研究

目的

绿色革命改变了印度旁遮普邦的农业，对印度其他地区产生了积极的溢出效应，但最近该邦的经济在人均国家产出排名中急剧下降。了解旁遮普邦的经济发展轨迹对整个印度来说都是重要的一课。经济发展通常与经济结构的变化有关，但旁遮普邦一直相对依赖农业，而不是将经济活动转向生产力增长可能更大的制造业和服务业。

设计/方法/方法

作者在印度各州的结构变化和经济增长的背景下，对旁遮普邦经济的结构变化进行了实证研究。作者计算了结构变化指数并绘制了它们随时间变化的模式。作者估计面板回归和时变参数回归，以及将生产力变化分解为部门内和结构变化。

发现

面板回归和时变系数回归表明结构变化对州级增长具有显着的积极影响。此外，增长对印度各州的结构变化产生了积极影响。旁遮普省经济结构性变化相对缺乏，这与其近期相对较差的增长表现有关。与少数其他州的比较强化了这一结论：旁遮普邦缺乏经济多元化是其经济表现落后的合理解释。

原创性/价值

本文对结构变化和增长进行了新颖的实证分析，同时使用三种不同的方法：面板回归、时变参数回归和生产率分解。据作者所知，这是我们所知道的唯一一篇结合了这三种方法的论文。