Argentina is the only country in the world that was developed in 1900 and developing in 2000. Although there is widespread consensus on the occurrence and uniqueness of this decline, an intense debate remains on its timing and underlying causes. This paper provides a first systematic investigation of the timing of the Argentine debacle. It uses an array of econometric tests for structural breaks and a range of GDP growth series covering 1886–2003. The main conclusion is the dating of two key structural breaks (in 1918 and 1948), which we argue support explanations for the debacle that highlight the slowdown of domestic financial development and trade protectionism (after 1918) and of institutional development (after 1948).

中文翻译：

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现在是天启，什么时候是天启？阿根廷的经济增长和结构性断裂（1886-2003）

阿根廷是世界上唯一一个1900年开发、2000年发展的国家。虽然对于这种衰退的发生和独特性已达成广泛共识，但对其时间和根本原因仍存在激烈争论。本文对阿根廷崩溃的时间进行了首次系统调查。它使用一系列计量经济学测试来分析结构性断裂和一系列涵盖 1886 年至 2003 年的 GDP 增长序列。主要结论是两次关键的结构性断裂（1918 年和 1948 年）的年代，我们认为这支持了对突出国内金融发展和贸易保护主义（1918 年之后）和制度发展（1948 年之后）放缓的崩溃的解释。