In 2021, the UK Government commenced a ‘cluster sequencing’ initiative to identify early movers in delivering carbon transport and storage (T&S) services to proximate regional industry clusters with capture potential. A Scottish proposition focussed primarily on linking the Grangemouth industry cluster to North Sea storage, and the potential to transition Oil and Gas industry capacity to deliver CO₂ T&S has devolved policy support. This is in terms of potential to transition and create new direct industry and supply chain jobs, set against risks of displacing jobs in different sectors and regions of the UK. We introduce a Scottish CO₂ T&S industry to a UK multi-sector economy-wide model, assessing the extent of potential expansion and job creation in the presence of supply-side and funding constraints. We find that large employment ‘multiplier’ gains registered in previous studies only apply over the very long term and in the absence of such constraints. Crucially, any need to recover demands on the public purse via socialisation of costs severely constrains possible gains, while imposing ‘polluter pays’ leads to net economy-wide contractions triggered by competitiveness losses concentrated in Scottish cluster industries, leading to offshoring of production and jobs, potentially skewed within the localities hosting the clusters.

2021 年，英国政府启动了“集群排序”计划，以确定在提供碳运输和存储 (T&S) 服务以邻近具有捕获潜力的区域产业集群方面的先行者。苏格兰的一项提议主要侧重于将 Grangemouth 产业集群与北海封存联系起来，并且将石油和天然气行业能力转变为提供 CO ₂ T&S的潜力已经下放了政策支持。这是在转型和创造新的直接行业和供应链工作岗位的潜力方面，与英国不同部门和地区的工作岗位流失风险相对。我们介绍了一个苏格兰 CO ₂T&S 行业到英国多部门经济范围模型，评估在存在供应方和资金限制的情况下潜在扩张和创造就业机会的程度。我们发现，先前研究中记录的大量就业“乘数”收益仅适用于很长一段时间并且没有此类限制。至关重要的是，任何通过成本社会化来恢复对公共钱包的需求都会严重限制可能的收益，而强加“污染者付费”会导致集中在苏格兰集群产业的竞争力损失引发的全经济净收缩，从而导致生产和工作的离岸外包，可能在托管集群的地区内倾斜。