The theoretical literature on price-matching guarantees (PMGs) finds that this policy has both a competition-softening and a competition-enhancing effect. Which effect dominates depends on market structure. This paper is the first to propose a structural framework to measure the impact of PMGs on market competition through a counterfactual analysis. The structural model proposed here can be estimated using price data alone. I estimate the model using data from the automotive tire market, and I find that the competition-softening effect is stronger than the competition-enhancing effect. PMGs keep transaction prices between 1% and 8% higher than they would be in the absence of such policy. PMGs exert the strongest effect on price-sensitive consumers, who tend to be the poorest. This consumer segment pays up to 10% higher prices in the presence of PMGs. The tire market has some unique features that facilitate the competition-enhancing effect of PMGs. Hence, that the competition-softening effect dominates even in the tire market suggests that PMGs may increase prices in many other markets, too.

关于价格匹配保证 (PMG) 的理论文献发现，该政策具有缓和竞争和增强竞争的作用。哪种效应占主导地位取决于市场结构。本文首次提出了一个结构框架，通过反事实分析来衡量 PMG 对市场竞争的影响。这里提出的结构模型可以单独使用价格数据进行估计。我使用汽车轮胎市场的数据对模型进行了估计，我发现竞争软化效应强于竞争增强效应。PMG 将交易价格保持在 1 %到 8 % 之间高于没有此类政策时的水平。PMG 对价格敏感的消费者影响最大，他们往往是最贫穷的。在 PMG 存在的情况下，这一消费群体支付的价格最高可达 10 %。轮胎市场具有一些独特的功能，可以促进 PMG 的竞争增强效果。因此，即使在轮胎市场，竞争软化效应也占主导地位，这表明 PMG 也可能在许多其他市场提高价格。