This study examines the relationship between inflation and economic complexity, the set of productive capabilities and know-how embedded in the structure of an economy. It posits that economic complexity, by providing the economy with the ability to reduce macroeconomic shocks, is associated with lower inflation. Economic complexity is inferred from the overall sophistication and mix of a country’s exports. Complex economies are highly diversified and export a large number of less ubiquitous products. Using a sample of 94 countries for the period 1970 to 2014, the impact of economic complexity on inflation is estimated using the Arellano and Bond generalized method of moments estimation procedure. The empirical results show that economic complexity has a negative causal impact on inflation. This effect is statistically significant, quantitatively large, and robust. From a policy perspective, the findings suggest that development driven by economic diversification, a critical component of economic complexity, rather than export specialization, is more likely to promote low inflation, a crucial objective of macroeconomic policy.

本研究考察了通货膨胀与经济复杂性、经济结构中嵌入的生产能力和专业知识之间的关系。它假定经济复杂性，通过为经济提供减少宏观经济冲击的能力，与较低的通货膨胀有关。经济复杂性是从一个国家出口的整体复杂性和组合中推断出来的。复杂的经济体高度多样化，出口大量不那么普遍的产品。使用 1970 年至 2014 年期间 94 个国家的样本，使用 Arellano 和 Bond 广义矩估计程序方法估计经济复杂性对通货膨胀的影响。实证结果表明，经济复杂性对通货膨胀具有负面的因果影响。这种影响在统计上是显着的，数量庞大，稳健。从政策的角度来看，研究结果表明，由经济多元化驱动的发展是经济复杂性的一个关键组成部分，而不是出口专业化，更有可能促进低通胀，这是宏观经济政策的一个关键目标。