ABSTRACT

Systems thinking and analysis from the civil and environmental engineering communities have been highly successful in mitigating the effects of natural and man-made hazards. Not surprisingly, the United Nations Human Development Index shows steady improvement for every nation since its implementation in 1990. The world has never been healthier, wealthier, or more educated than at the present. Climate change and sustainability remain as significant challenges to be faced. It will be shown, though, that economic and life-safety losses from climate change are often exaggerated and do not reflect wealth creation, human capital, and new improved technologies. There is an urgent need for systems-led approaches and there is a proud record of accomplishments in the past that should equally as well translate into the future. This paper will discuss these issues, as well as briefly describe the importance of systems engineering in dealing with new and emerging threats, as well as the political imperative. The paper will also highlight that there is much to be optimistic about the future, and in the ability of systems thinking to meet any challenges. And to quote Monty Python we should try to ‘Always Look on the Bright Side of Life’.

摘要

土木和环境工程界的系统思考和分析在减轻自然和人为灾害的影响方面取得了巨大成功。毫不奇怪，自 1990 年实施联合国人类发展指数以来，每个国家都在稳步改善。世界从未像现在这样更健康、更富裕或受教育程度更高。气候变化和可持续性仍然是需要面对的重大挑战。然而，这将表明，气候变化造成的经济和生命安全损失往往被夸大，并不反映财富创造、人力资本和新的改进技术。迫切需要以系统为主导的方法，过去取得的成就令人自豪，这些成就同样也应转化为未来。本文将讨论这些问题，并简要描述系统工程在应对新出现的威胁方面的重要性，以及政治上的必要性。该论文还将强调，对未来以及系统思考应对任何挑战的能力有很多值得乐观的地方。引用 Monty Python 的话，我们应该尝试“永远看生活的光明面”。