ABSTRACT

Since the food component has a large weight in the CPI basket and food inflation plays one of the main roles in determining the headline inflation in Iran, this paper looks at connections between monetary policy, currency crisis, sanction and food price. To examine the dynamics and asymmetric effects of these relationships, we employ quantile regression. Empirically, we show that the coefficients of monetary policy, exchange rate and currency crisis on the food prices in different quantiles are positive and significant. In most cases, we show that food prices in Iran are responsive to the price of oil.More importantly, the inflation of food is strongly linked to economic sanctions, and the effect is significant across all quantiles. To verify robustness, the food price model was estimated using ARDL model as an alternative. The present study came up with the same results when compared to quantile regression.Eventually, asymmetric effects at different quantiles were confirmed.

摘要

由于食品成分在 CPI 篮子中的权重很大，而食品通胀是决定伊朗总体通胀的主要因素之一，因此本文着眼于货币政策、货币危机、制裁和食品价格之间的联系。为了检查这些关系的动态和不对称影响，我们采用分位数回归。实证上，我们表明货币政策、汇率和货币危机对不同分位数食品价格的系数是正的且显着。在大多数情况下，我们表明伊朗的食品价格对石油价格有反应。更重要的是，食品通胀与经济制裁密切相关，而且影响在所有分位数上都很显着。为了验证稳健性，使用ARDL模型作为替代估计食品价格模型。