Abstract

Large similarities exist between the labor and real estate space markets. The natural rate of unemployment (NRU) and the natural vacancy rate (NVR) are important in modeling these markets. The real estate literature has drawn on early modeling of the labor market and has predominantly assumed the NVR to be constant in time. We consider a range of approaches to estimate cross-sectional and time variation in the NVR for the US office market. The results provide no evidence for a time trend, but the NVR may still vary temporally although it is difficult to identify plausible and consistent variation.

中文翻译：

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劳动力和房地产市场的调整：自然空置率时间序列变化的估计

摘要

劳动力市场和房地产市场之间存在很大的相似之处。自然失业率 (NRU) 和自然空置率 (NVR) 在模拟这些市场时非常重要。房地产文献借鉴了劳动力市场的早期模型，并主要假设 NVR 在时间上是恒定的。我们考虑了一系列方法来估计美国办公市场 NVR 的横截面和时间变化。结果没有提供时间趋势的证据，但 NVR 仍可能随时间变化，尽管很难确定合理且一致的变化。