ABSTRACT

This article aims to understand the gas-pricing mechanisms in the world’s major markets and hence draw implications for gas-pricing reform in Asia. It adopts a newly proposed time-varying Granger causality test to investigate the connection between crude oil and natural gas prices. The empirical results suggest the necessity to establish gas trading hubs and hence adopt hub-based pricing in Asia and Europe so that gas pricing can fully reflect the fundamentals in gas markets and help achieve more efficient gas allocation. The resultant growth in gas consumption and potential replacement of dirtier fuels such as coal and oil is important for emission reduction and hence climate change action in the world, particularly in Asia, the world’s most dynamic region.

摘要

本文旨在了解世界主要市场的天然气定价机制，从而对亚洲的天然气定价改革产生影响。它采用新提出的时变格兰杰因果检验来研究原油和天然气价格之间的联系。实证结果表明，有必要在亚洲和欧洲建立天然气交易中心，从而采用以枢纽为基础的定价，使天然气定价能够充分反映天然气市场的基本面，有助于实现更有效的天然气配置。随之而来的天然气消费量增长以及煤和石油等较脏燃料的潜在替代对于减少排放以及全球气候变化行动非常重要，特别是在亚洲这个世界上最具活力的地区。