ABSTRACT

The paper describes how Robert E. Lucas, Jr.’s monetary economies are based on his methodology of using a single general equilibrium dynamic optimization model with microeconomic foundations that can be tested with econometric methods. It shows how, since his 1972 neutrality paper, Phillips curves continue to be a foundation for policy prescription contrary to Lucas’s 1972 results. In support of Lucas’s hypothesis, historical Phillips curves are shown to be idiosyncratic rather than a basis for policy. Using Lucas’s alternative microfounded approaches to money, growth, and asset pricing, the paper then presents Lucas-type extensions for money and growth using a microfounded bank production of exchange credit as an alternative to money, as suggested by Lucas. The paper also shows how this leads to endogenous velocity, money causing inflation, and inflation causing lower economic growth, as in evidence. This implies that Lucas-based low stable inflation policy yields high economic growth and employment.

摘要

本文描述了 Robert E. Lucas, Jr. 的货币经济是如何基于他使用单一一般均衡动态优化模型的方法论的，该模型具有可以用计量经济学方法检验的微观经济基础。它表明，自他 1972 年发表中立论文以来，菲利普斯曲线如何继续成为与卢卡斯 1972 年结果相反的政策处方的基础。为了支持卢卡斯的假设，历史菲利普斯曲线被证明是特殊的，而不是政策的基础。使用卢卡斯对货币、增长和资产定价的另类微基础方法，该论文然后提出了卢卡斯类型的货币和增长扩展，使用微基础银行生产的外汇信贷作为货币的替代品，正如卢卡斯所建议的那样。该论文还展示了这如何导致内生速度，货币导致通货膨胀，如证据所示，通货膨胀导致经济增长放缓。这意味着基于卢卡斯的低稳定通胀政策会产生高经济增长和就业。