The COVID-19 crisis has revived an old heated debate on whether significant increases in the money supply ultimately lead to higher inflation. Some observers have alluded to the quantity theory of money for that purpose, though in our view, this has sometimes been in a misleading way. Against this background, this paper seeks to clarify several aspects of the quantity theory of money, which are useful to apply it fairly in the current world. First, we review the meaning of the velocity term in the quantity equation. We argue that it has no relevance as a behavioural concept: there is no such thing as a 'desired velocity'. Rather, income velocity should be seen as a variable deriving from a system of parameters and variables related to money demand, as the monetarist approach clearly puts it, with no intrinsic relevance. Second, we clarify the practical relevance that the quantity theory approach can bear in the 21st century. Third, we review the channels and assumptions underlying the asserted quantity theory link between money growth and inflation. In light of our analysis, we conclude that the high money growth rates seen since the pandemic outbreak are unlikely to translate into higher inflation rates.

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COVID-19 时代的货币主义算术：如何不误用货币数量论

COVID-19 危机重新引发了关于货币供应量的显着增加最终是否会导致更高的通货膨胀的激烈辩论。一些观察家为此目的提到了货币数量论，尽管在我们看来，这有时是一种误导。在此背景下，本文试图阐明货币数量论的几个方面，这些方面有助于在当今世界公平地应用货币数量论。首先，我们回顾量方程中速度项的含义。我们认为它与行为概念无关：不存在“所需速度”之类的东西。相反，收入速度应被视为源自与货币需求相关的参数和变量系统的变量，正如货币主义方法明确指出的那样，没有内在相关性。第二，我们阐明了数量论方法在 21 世纪可以承受的实际相关性。第三，我们回顾了货币增长与通货膨胀之间所断言的数量理论联系的渠道和假设。根据我们的分析，我们得出结论，自大流行爆发以来出现的高货币增长率不太可能转化为更高的通货膨胀率。