We use the behavioral concept to endogenously model the evolution of the link between households’ deposit dollarization and exchange rate developments in Russia. We estimate the model empirically and show that the reaction of households to exchange rate appreciation weakens when exchange rate developments become more volatile. The proposed model outperforms the contemporary nonlinear time series models in forecasting the changes in dollarization during the Bank of Russia’s transition to a flexible exchange rate regime.

中文翻译：

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家庭存款美元化的实证行为模型

我们使用行为概念对俄罗斯家庭存款美元化与汇率发展之间联系的演变进行内生建模。我们对模型进行了实证估计，并表明当汇率发展变得更加不稳定时，家庭对汇率升值的反应会减弱。所提出的模型在预测俄罗斯银行向灵活汇率制度过渡期间的美元化变化方面优于当代非线性时间序列模型。