Purpose

A potential farm policy concern is that if nontraditional (vendor/point-of-sale) financing represents increased risk, it may have an aggregate effect on sector-wide farm financial risk. This analysis examines the use of nontraditional lender credit among borrowers in the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s Farm Service Agency (FSA)'s direct farm loan programs.

Design/methodology/approach

Data source included the USDA FSA direct operating loan program for 2011–2020. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the occurrence of default over seven-year term direct operating loans.

Findings

Results indicated that point-of-sale financing has a significant and positive relationship with risk for FSA direct operating loan borrowers. The presence of intermediate point-of-sale financing (mostly from machinery and equipment vendors) is associated with an increased probability of default of 9%, and the presence of such loan balances in the amount of $50,000 or more had a higher probability of default of 21%. Short-term nontraditional financing (for example from fertilizer vendors) was found to be positively related to borrower risk of default as indicated by a 22–25% increase in the likelihood of loan default.

Originality/value

Through FSA Farm Business Plan data, the authors were able to distinguish specific vendors and their loan purpose, which advances the knowledge beyond what is currently available through survey data. Findings indicate a minor increase in borrower risk for those with intermediate-term nontraditional financing. However, borrowers with short-term nontraditional financing and having large balances or greater number of nontraditional loans had increases in risk of default by substantive amounts.

中文翻译：

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使用非传统信贷会增加风险吗？

目的

一个潜在的农业政策担忧是，如果非传统（供应商/销售点）融资代表风险增加，它可能会对整个部门的农业金融风险产生综合影响。该分析考察了美国农业部 (USDA) 的农业服务局 (FSA) 直接农业贷款计划中借款人对非传统贷方信贷的使用情况。

设计/方法/方法

数据来源包括 2011-2020 年美国农业部 FSA 直接经营贷款计划。Cox 比例风险模型用于估计七年期直接经营贷款违约的发生率。

发现

结果表明，销售点融资与 FSA 直接经营贷款借款人的风险存在显着的正相关关系。中间销售点融资（主要来自机械和设备供应商）的存在与 9% 的违约概率增加相关，并且此类贷款余额在 50,000 美元或更多的情况下违约概率更高21%。短期非传统融资（例如来自化肥供应商）被发现与借款人违约风险呈正相关，贷款违约的可能性增加了 22-25%。

原创性/价值

通过 FSA 农场商业计划数据，作者能够区分特定的供应商及其贷款目的，这使知识超越了目前通过调查数据可获得的知识。调查结果表明，那些拥有中期非传统融资的借款人风险略有增加。但是，拥有短期非传统融资且余额较大或非传统贷款数量较多的借款人的违约风险会大幅增加。