We study how residents form beliefs about the prevalence of crime in their neighborhood. We document the process of learning about local crime for a uniquely long period of 10 years after taking up residence. Our analysis is based on four successive waves of a large crime survey in the Netherlands matched with administrative register data for the complete history of places of residence between 1995 and 2011. We find that beliefs of residents are much more favorable shortly after their move into the neighborhood than they are longer after their move. The adjustments in beliefs only level off after many years. A large part of this adjustment in the years after a move can be explained by the accumulation of direct experiences with crime. Our findings show that victimization of crime is more than the outcome of a calculated risk; it is a costly form of learning about crime.

中文翻译：

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犯罪风险认知的动态

我们研究居民如何形成对附近犯罪流行的信念。我们记录了在居住后长达 10 年的独特长时期内了解当地犯罪的过程。我们的分析基于荷兰连续四波的大型犯罪调查，并与 1995 年至 2011 年期间居住地完整历史的行政登记数据相匹配。我们发现，居民在搬入后不久的信念要好得多。邻居比他们搬家后的时间更长。多年后，信念的调整才趋于平稳。在搬家后的几年中，这种调整的很大一部分可以通过直接犯罪经验的积累来解释。我们的研究结果表明，犯罪受害不仅仅是计算风险的结果；