This study examines the role of cash transfers in mitigating the welfare impact of negative rainfall shocks on children in rural households. Household-level panel data, obtained from areas where Ethiopia’s Social Cash Transfer Pilot Programme operated, are merged with available climate data. The results from a two-way fixed effects model reveal that cash transfers significantly reduce the negative effect of drought on food consumption Z-score of children in beneficiary households. As the magnitude of drought increases, however, no difference in children’s FCS Z-score is found between beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. The study provides evidence for household food consumption-based coping strategies as a mechanism. As such, beneficiary households are able to avoid food consumption-destabilising coping strategies as long as the droughts they experience are not of high magnitude. The findings of this study offer policy-relevant insights into the extent to which cash transfers can buffer the adverse welfare impact of drought on children.

中文翻译：

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埃塞俄比亚的现金转移、负降雨冲击和儿童福利

本研究探讨了现金转移在减轻负面降雨冲击对农村家庭儿童的福利影响方面的作用。从埃塞俄比亚社会现金转移试点计划实施地区获得的家庭面板数据与可用的气候数据合并。双向固定效应模型的结果表明，现金转移支付显着降低了干旱对受益家庭儿童食品消费 Z 值的负面影响。然而，随着干旱程度的增加，受益家庭和非受益家庭之间的儿童 FCS Z 得分没有差异。该研究为基于家庭食品消费的应对策略作为一种机制提供了证据。因此，只要受惠家庭经历的干旱程度不高，他们就能够避免破坏粮食消费稳定的应对策略。本研究的结果为现金转移可以在多大程度上缓冲干旱对儿童的不利福利影响提供了与政策相关的见解。