ABSTRACT

Traditionally, a higher debt burden is expected to negatively affect the economic growth, although the empirical evidence is inconclusive. In this paper we have re-examined the debt-growth relationship for 32 emerging economies while considering possible nonlinear impact of debt on economic growth using a dynamic panel. Our results suggest that for emerging economics, a large debt if used efficiently, can lead to significant positive economic growth. This relationship remains unchanged even when we control for other macroeconomic variables. We have also identified three different threshold debt-GDP ratios for the one, two and three period lags of debt and found an asymmetric impact of debt between above-threshold and below-threshold countries.

摘要

传统上，较高的债务负担预计会对经济增长产生负面影响，尽管经验证据尚无定论。在本文中，我们重新审视了 32 个新兴经济体的债务增长关系，同时使用动态面板考虑债务对经济增长的可能非线性影响。我们的研究结果表明，对于新兴经济体而言，如果有效利用巨额债务，可以带来显着的正经济增长。即使我们控制了其他宏观经济变量，这种关系也保持不变。我们还为第一期、第二期和第三期债务确定了三种不同的阈值债务与 GDP 比率，并发现高于阈值和低于阈值的国家之间的债务影响不对称。