Crude oil price volatility as an important driver of the trade balance of economies has been widely documented in the literature. However, studies on the effect of oil price volatility on the trade balance in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) are limited. In this paper, we explore the effect of crude oil price volatility on the trade balance across 34 SSA countries using Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Common Correlated Effect Pooled Mean Group (CCEPMG) estimators for the period January 2004 to December 2017. We find that crude oil price volatility exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of SSA countries. We further demonstrate that inflation, interest rates and exchange rates are significant transmission channels for oil price volatility to impact trade balance. We suggest that policymakers hedge as well as adopt price-smoothing schemes to minimise the volatility of oil prices on trade balance. Again, countries should adopt an inflation-targeting regime to ensure the stability of the general price level. Finally, central banks of the respective countries should apply a combination of foreign exchange market interventions and interest rate changes to reduce the effect of oil price volatility on their trade balance when the exchange rate is taken into account.

中文翻译：

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油价波动对撒哈拉以南非洲贸易平衡的影响

原油价格波动作为经济体贸易平衡的重要驱动因素已在文献中得到广泛记载。然而，关于油价波动对撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）贸易平衡影响的研究有限。在本文中，我们使用 2004 年 1 月至 2017 年 12 月期间的汇总平均组 (PMG) 和共同相关效应汇总平均组 (CCEPMG) 估计量探讨了原油价格波动对 34 个 SSA 国家贸易平衡的影响。我们发现原油价格波动对 SSA 国家的贸易平衡产生负面影响。我们进一步证明，通胀、利率和汇率是油价波动影响贸易平衡的重要传导渠道。我们建议政策制定者对冲并采取价格平滑计划，以尽量减少石油价格对贸易平衡的波动。再次，各国应采用通胀目标制，以确保总体价格水平的稳定。最后，在考虑汇率的情况下，各国央行应结合外汇市场干预和利率变化来降低油价波动对其贸易平衡的影响。